AERTHEIX Advisory Insight Series No.04 Published 30 Sep 2026

The Readiness Gap

Coaching works. More sessions don't reliably add more. The missing variable may be upstream.

Researchers have asked for a readiness check for years. It rarely happens, because the usual check is a self-report and managers have less time than before. The more workable source of evidence is the work itself.

Correction: This revision updates the 2025 training-market estimate and clarifies the scope of cited transfer research and the illustrative scenarios.

2,994 words About 13 minutes 6 parts Sources included

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Readiness Question

PART 1

The Employee Nothing Seems to Work On

Most managers can name one. The tools they were given rarely reach that person.

Ask experienced managers who is hardest to manage, and the answer comes quickly.

It is usually not the weakest performer. It is a particular kind of person.

A familiar list

In frontline retail, the first answer is often the person who struggles to learn, or learns slowly. Many people in these roles did not come through an academic route. Most of the training bought for them was designed by people who did.

Then come the people managers describe with more feeling:

  • The one who won't take input.
  • The one who makes the same mistake a fourth time.
  • The one who is careless in ways that keep costing something.
  • The one who doesn't want to be there.
  • The one who nods in the meeting and does nothing afterwards.

In offices there is one more, phrased almost the same way everywhere: that's not my job.

It isn't a shortage of tools

Most organisations have a training catalogue, a competency framework, a performance cycle and managers trained to coach.

The pattern holds anyway. Things run acceptably for months. Then something goes wrong where it matters — a client, an audit, a handover — and it is often the same person, for reasons that were visible beforehand.

Coaching is the standard answer

In management classrooms, coaching is close to the default: ask rather than tell, and let the person own the change.

For many cases that works. For simple performance gaps, the familiar situational approach — more direction for the new, more room for the capable — works well enough too.

For a smaller group, none of it seems to land. The conversation is polite. Nothing changes. A quarter later, the same conversation happens again.

Then the options narrow

Ask managers what is left once coaching has failed, and many name two things: raise your voice, or remove the person.

The options in between — reassignment, redesigned work, a lighter load, a staged plan — do exist. They are used less, because each one requires someone to first establish what is actually wrong.

What research says happens next

The drift toward harsher treatment has been studied.

Tepper, Moss and Duffy found that when supervisors see a subordinate as a poor performer, abusive supervision becomes more likely: raised voices, public criticism, withdrawn courtesy.

Later research points to a mechanism. When the cause of poor performance is unclear, supervisors tend to put it down to the person — often reading it as low conscientiousness. That reading is linked to harsher treatment.

The manager pays too. Shen and colleagues found that an employee's poor performance can raise the supervisor's own emotional exhaustion, partly through the supervisor's own harsher behaviour.

A cycle, not a character flaw

The cause is unclear. The manager needs an explanation and reaches for the one that needs no further information: this is just who they are. Patience runs out. Both people end the year worse off, and the behaviour hasn't changed.

The problem may not be the menu of responses. Most managers can use several of them well. What seems to be missing comes earlier — a way to tell, before choosing, which kind of case is in front of you.

One item on that menu has grown faster than the rest. It is also the one most often prescribed for the cases it doesn't reach.

PART 2

How Coaching Became Every Manager's Job

The growth is real, and so is the case for it. Something was lost along the way.

A profession that more than doubled

The International Coaching Federation estimated 53,300 coach practitioners worldwide in 2016. Its 2025 study put the figure at 122,974.

These are survey-based estimates, weighted toward credentialled coaches. Read them as a direction, not a precise count.

From a service to a skill

More telling than the headcount is where coaching now sits.

ICF now tracks "role integrators" — managers who use coaching skills inside their day job rather than as a separate profession. They made up 11% of its 2025 respondents.

Leadership programmes followed. A manager on a general leadership course today can expect to learn a questioning model, a listening model and a feedback model.

There is a reason for the shift

It isn't only about cost. Jones, Woods and Guillaume reviewed 17 workplace coaching studies and found stronger effects when the coach was internal rather than external.

If internal coaching tends to work better, training managers to coach is a defensible choice.

What quietly disappeared

Buying a coaching engagement involves a selection step, even an informal one. Someone decides that this person, at this point, is worth the fee. A professional coach can also decline a case that won't work.

When coaching becomes a standing expectation of the line manager, that step tends to disappear. The manager coaches whoever is in front of them.

The field has scaled the intervention. It has not scaled the judgement about when to use it.

Before going further, one question needs a straight answer: does coaching actually work?

PART 3

Yes, Coaching Works. Here Is the Fine Print.

The headline numbers are real. So are the caveats.

The case for coaching

The most widely cited review, by Theeboom, Beersma and van Vianen, pooled 18 studies of coaching in organisations. Coaching improved every outcome they measured.

OUTCOME EFFECT SIZE (g)
Goal-directed self-regulation 0.74
Performance and skills 0.60
Work attitudes 0.54
Well-being 0.46
Coping 0.43

In psychology, these count as moderate to large effects. A separate review limited to workplace coaching also found positive effects.

Fine print 1: the study design changes the answer

In the same review, studies that compared people only with themselves, before and after, found an effect of g = 1.15. Studies that included a comparison group found g = 0.39.

That is a threefold gap driven by method, not by coaching. Before-and-after designs leave room for other explanations: time passing, the attention itself, or people drifting back toward their usual level.

Fine print 2: randomised trials report more modest effects

A 2023 review of randomised controlled trials only, by Nicolau and colleagues, found an overall effect of g = 0.43, which the authors describe as moderate. It rests on 20 studies of external coaches. The one earlier randomised-only review, by Burt and Talati, rested on 11 studies and reported notably lower effects than Theeboom's.

Why this doesn't sink the argument

Smaller effects under stricter tests are normal in applied psychology. Coaching still beats doing nothing.

What the stricter evidence changes is how confidently anyone can say how much it helps, for whom, and under what conditions.

That spread between studies — not the average across them — is where Part 4 begins.

PART 4

More Coaching Isn't the Same as Better Coaching

Three major reviews found that the number of sessions made no reliable difference. One found it did. Both results point the same way.

In most interventions, more of the thing produces more of the effect, at least up to a point.

More hours of practice, more improvement. A higher dose, a stronger response. Checking for that relationship is standard practice in intervention research.

Coaching mostly fails that check

Theeboom and colleagues tested whether the number of coaching sessions changed the size of the effect. It did not.

Jones, Woods and Guillaume ran the same test on workplace coaching, and went further. They checked for a straight-line relationship and for a curve — the pattern where extra sessions help up to a point and then stop helping. Neither appeared. There was no dose effect and no plateau.

Nicolau and colleagues, using only randomised trials, found the same: the number of sessions did not moderate the result. The one exception was a modest link between longer programmes and attitude outcomes.

One review disagrees

Sonesh and colleagues, in a separate 2015 meta-analysis, did find that the number of sessions was a significant moderator.

This report does not set that finding aside. Four reviews, three reporting no reliable dose effect and one reporting a clear one, is a mixed picture, not a settled one.

Why the mixed result is the interesting part

Theeboom and colleagues offered an explanation for their own result.

People with simpler, less serious issues tend to need fewer sessions and gain more from them. People with more serious or complex issues tend to receive more sessions and gain less.

If that is right, the number of sessions and the difficulty of the case move together. The harder the case, the more sessions it gets, and the smaller the improvement. Averaged across everyone, that can hide whatever effect extra sessions have.

So the question "does more coaching help?" may not have a single answer. It may help some people a great deal and others very little.

Which turns it into a question about cost

For a manager, that matters in a practical way.

If one person needs many rounds of coaching to show a small change, the time spent on that person is not available for anyone else on the team. The useful question stops being whether more coaching works. It becomes whether it is worth it, for this person, compared with the other things that time could have been used for.

That can only be answered by knowing something about the person before the sessions start.

PART 5

The Answer Researchers Keep Pointing To

The people who study coaching have been saying for years what decides the result. It sits before the first session.

The meta-analysis that asked for it directly

Jones, Woods and Guillaume ended their discussion of session numbers with a specific request. Future research, they suggested, should qualify the finding by taking account of how severe the employee's development issues are at the start of coaching.

That is a call for a measure taken before coaching begins, written by the authors of one of the field's main reviews, in the field's own journals.

The factors that have been identified

Bozer and Jones later reviewed 117 empirical studies of workplace coaching to find out what determines whether it works. Seven areas stood out. Several of them describe the person being coached: self-efficacy, motivation to be coached, and goal orientation. One describes the conditions around them: support from their supervisor.

Leadership researchers use a related idea. Hannah and Avolio call it developmental readiness — a person's motivation to develop, and their ability to develop. Part of that ability, in their account, is self-awareness.

The direction is consistent. What the person brings to coaching, and what surrounds them, shapes what coaching can do.

Coaching's own definition shows why

The International Coaching Federation describes the coach's job as supporting "the skills, resources, and creativity that the client already has."

That is a sound description of what coaching does well. It is also an assumption. Coaching works on the premise that the answer is already in the person, and that what is missing is the space or the questions to reach it.

Where the premise holds, and where it doesn't

The second report in this series set out five working patterns behind development that doesn't convert. They are an AERTHEIX working framework drawn from practice, not a validated classification. Read against coaching's premise, they separate quickly.

PATTERN WHAT IS MISSING DOES COACHING'S PREMISE HOLD?
CAPABILITY GAP — "I want to change, but I don't know how." The method Mostly not. The answer isn't there yet. Instruction and practice come first
PRIORITY GAP — "I understand, but I don't think it matters." A reason Partly. Coaching can help surface what the person values, if they are open to it
RECOGNITION GAP — "I disagree with the assessment." Agreement that a gap exists Not yet. Coaching presupposes a goal the person accepts
SYSTEM GAP — "I agree, but the environment won't let me." Workable conditions No. Coaching an individual can turn a structural problem into a personal one
CAPACITY GAP — "I don't have the bandwidth right now." Time or load relief No. More sessions add to the load

Coaching fits best where a person accepts the gap, has the basic capability, and is held back by something they have not yet seen. That is a real and common case. It is also narrower than the range of cases coaching is currently sent to.

Back to the list in Part 1

The people managers named at the start — the one who won't take input, the one who repeats the same mistake, the one who nods and does nothing — rarely sit in that narrow case.

Which raises the obvious question. If the research has pointed to readiness for years, why does so little of it happen in practice?

PART 6

Why Readiness Goes Unchecked — and What Would Make It Workable

Three ordinary reasons explain most of it. None of them requires anyone to be doing their job badly.

Reason 1: the premise is taken on trust

Coaching is taught as a way of drawing out what a person already knows. In practice, that premise tends to be assumed rather than checked.

The manager is taught to ask good questions. Far less attention goes to whether this person, at this point, is someone the questions can reach. The working assumption is that the person knows the problem, knows roughly what to do, and is held back by a blind spot. For some people that is true. For the cases in Part 1, it often isn't.

Reason 2: checking takes time, and the usual check is weak

Assessing readiness is an extra task on top of the coaching itself.

When it is done, it is usually a questionnaire the person fills in about themselves. That runs into a basic problem. Readiness, as researchers describe it, includes self-awareness. Asking someone to rate their own self-awareness is circular: the people with the least of it are the people least able to report it accurately.

The people involved also have little reason to raise the question. The coach has been engaged. The manager nominated the person. The person has no reason to say they are not ready. Calling a case unsuitable costs each of them something.

Reason 3: the manager has less time than before

Gallup reports that the average US manager now has 12.1 direct reports, up from 10.9 in 2024 and 8.2 in 2013.

Two caveats. These are US figures; comparable public data for Hong Kong is not available. And Gallup also finds that large teams can perform well when they are managed effectively. Team size alone does not decide the outcome.

But every added direct report comes out of the same fixed week. A readiness check that takes an hour per person, done properly, is a day and a half of work for a team of twelve — before any coaching begins.

What would make it workable

If readiness can't be established by a separate form, and managers don't have spare hours for it, the evidence has to come from somewhere else.

The most plausible source is the work itself. Managers already see what happens after they give feedback, set a standard or change someone's conditions. The person corrects course, or doesn't. They ask for help, or they repeat the error. They accept the assessment, or they dispute it. Most of that is observed. Very little of it is written down in a form anyone can use later.

A short, consistent record of those moments, against a written standard, kept as they happen, would make readiness visible by the time a development decision has to be made. It would also show which of the five patterns is more likely in play — which is what decides whether coaching is the right next move at all.

The obvious objection

A manager short of time for a readiness questionnaire is also short of time for a new record.

That objection is fair, and it is the practical test for any approach of this kind. The record only works if it is lighter than what it replaces: a few lines at the moment something happens, not a form completed at review time. Whether that can be kept light enough for a manager with twelve direct reports is not something this report can assert. It has to be shown.

Where VITALIS fits

VITALIS is not a coaching instrument and does not predict who will respond to coaching. It creates a structured record, built from ordinary work, of how a person has responded to instruction, feedback and changed conditions — with the observed instances kept alongside the reading, and with the explanation left open where the evidence does not settle it.

That record can help a manager decide whether the next move is coaching, instruction, a change in conditions, a change in load, or more observation. Founding deployments will test whether it can make those distinctions consistently, and whether it can be kept light enough to use, without overstating what the evidence shows.

Sources and notes
  1. Every figure in this section is attributed below to the document it came from. Where sources disagree, the disagreement is stated rather than resolved silently. Where a figure could not be traced to a primary document, it is not used.
  2. Part 1
  3. Tepper, B. J., Moss, S. E., & Duffy, M. K. (2011). Predictors of abusive supervision: Supervisor perceptions of deep-level dissimilarity, relationship conflict, and subordinate performance. Academy of Management Journal, 54(2), 279–294. DOI: 10.5465/AMJ.2011.60263085. Cited for the finding that supervisors' perceptions of poor subordinate performance predict abusive supervision.

  4. Lyubykh, Z., Bozeman, J., Hershcovis, M. S., Turner, N., & Shan, J. V. (2022). Employee performance and abusive supervision: The role of supervisor over-attributions. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 43, 125–145. DOI: 10.1002/job.2560. Published online 2021. Cited for the finding that supervisors tend to over-attribute lower employee performance to lower employee conscientiousness, and that this attribution in turn relates to more abusive supervision; the authors frame this as a perceptual bias that operates when it is unclear who or what caused poor performance.

  5. Shen, W., Liang, L. H., Brown, D. J., Ni, D., & Zheng, X. (2021). Subordinate poor performance as a stressor on leader well-being: The mediating role of abusive supervision and the moderating role of motives for abuse. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 26, 491–506. Cited for the finding that subordinate poor performance acts as a stressor on the leader's own well-being, with abusive supervision as a mediating path.

  6. Eissa, G., & Lester, S. W. (2017). Supervisor role overload and frustration as antecedents of abusive supervision: The moderating role of supervisor personality. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 38(3), 307–326. DOI: 10.1002/job.2123. Cited as supporting context on supervisor-side antecedents rather than for a specific figure.

  7. Situational Leadership is referred to in Part 1 as a practical heuristic in common use, not as validated theory, and no claim is made on its behalf. For readers who want the evidence position: the model originates with Hersey and Blanchard (1969) and is widely taught. Thompson and Vecchio (2009), reviewing four empirical tests of its central prediction — Vecchio (1987), Norris and Vecchio (1992), Fernandez and Vecchio (1997), and Vecchio, Bullis and Brazil (2006) — concluded that the theory has minimal, often only directional, support at the low-maturity level, and that it cannot be fully endorsed as originally stated. Inuzuka (2019) tested it on 1,195 salespeople across 374 stores of a large Japanese apparel company and reported no support. Thompson and Glasø (2018) found that the model's prescriptions were supported where the leader's rating and the follower's self-rating of development level were congruent.

  8. Thompson, G., & Vecchio, R. P. (2009). Situational leadership theory: A test of three versions. The Leadership Quarterly.

  9. Thompson, G., & Glasø, L. (2018). Situational leadership theory: A test from a leader–follower congruence approach. Leadership & Organization Development Journal, 39(5), 574–591.

  10. Inuzuka, A. (2019). SL 理論の妥当性の再検証:コサイン曲線を用いた包括的検証法の提案 [Revalidation of Situational Leadership Theory: A comprehensive verification method using cosine curves]. 経営行動科学 (Japanese Journal of Administrative Science), 31(1–2), 17–32. DOI: 10.5651/jaas.31.17.

  11. The frontline difficulty ordering reported at the top of Part 1 — learning speed first, then unwillingness to take input, repeated error, carelessness, disengagement, agreement without follow-through, and scope refusal in office settings — is based on real work environments, mainly retail. It is a practitioner observation, not survey data, and is presented as such.

  12. Part 2
  13. International Coaching Federation (2025). 2025 ICF Global Coaching Study, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers. Survey fielded 28 February to 23 April 2025; 10,035 valid responses from 127 countries, of which 8,916 (89%) were coach practitioners and 1,119 (11%) were managers or leaders using coaching skills. Estimated 122,974 coach practitioners worldwide. Limitation stated by the study and repeated here: approximately 80% of respondents were ICF members, so the estimates reflect the professionalised, credentialled end of the field and are not a census.

  14. International Coaching Federation (2016). 2016 ICF Global Coaching Study. Estimated 53,300 coach practitioners worldwide and 10,900 managers or leaders using coaching skills.

  15. Note on ICF growth figures. ICF's own materials describe the increase in practitioners between its 2023 and 2025 studies as both 13% and 15%. This report uses the practitioner counts themselves (53,300 in 2016; 122,974 in 2025) and does not use a growth rate. ICF's revenue estimates are not used.

  16. Jones, R. J., Woods, S. A., & Guillaume, Y. R. F. (2016). The effectiveness of workplace coaching: A meta-analysis of learning and performance outcomes from coaching. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 89(2), 249–277. Cited in Part 2 for the finding that effects were significantly stronger for internal than external coaches. The same analysis found that use of multisource feedback was associated with smaller positive effects, and found no moderation by coaching format.

  17. Part 3
  18. Theeboom, T., Beersma, B., & van Vianen, A. E. M. (2014). Does coaching work? A meta-analysis on the effects of coaching on individual level outcomes in an organizational context. The Journal of Positive Psychology, 9(1), 1–18. k = 18. Effect sizes reported: goal-directed self-regulation g = 0.74; performance and skills g = 0.60; work attitudes g = 0.54; well-being g = 0.46; coping g = 0.43. Research design was a significant moderator: within-subjects designs g = 1.15, mixed designs g = 0.39. Number of coaching sessions was not a significant moderator.

  19. Jones, Woods & Guillaume (2016), as above. k = 17.

  20. Nicolau, A., Candel, O. S., Constantin, T., & Kleingeld, A. (2023). The effects of executive coaching on behaviors, attitudes, and personal characteristics: a meta-analysis of randomized control trial studies. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, 1089797. DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1089797. k = 20, external coaches only, randomised designs only. Overall Hedges' g = 0.43 (95% CI 0.35–0.50), described by the authors as a moderate effect; behaviours g = 0.73 (k = 12); attitudes g = 0.34 (k = 12); person characteristics g = 0.51 (k = 16). The authors report no moderating effect of the number of coaching sessions or programme length, except a positive relationship between programme length and attitude outcomes — relevant to Part 4. The authors cite Burt and Talati (2017) as the only earlier randomised-only meta-analysis (11 studies) and describe its effects as notably lower than those of Theeboom et al. (2014) and De Meuse et al. (2009); we have not consulted Burt and Talati directly.

  21. Part 4
  22. Theeboom, Beersma & van Vianen (2014), as above. Number of coaching sessions was not a significant moderator. The authors' proposed explanation — that people with less serious or less complex issues need fewer sessions and experience more positive effects than people with more serious or complex issues — is reported here as their hypothesis, not as a tested finding.

  23. Jones, Woods & Guillaume (2016), as above. k = 17. The authors report no moderation of effect size by coaching format or by duration (number of sessions or longevity of the intervention), and that their tests for curvilinear effects did not indicate a plateau.

  24. Nicolau et al. (2023), as above. No moderating effect of number of sessions or programme length, except a positive relationship between programme length and attitude outcomes.

  25. Sonesh, S. C., Coultas, C. W., Lacerenza, C. N., Marlow, S. L., & Benishek, L. E. (2015). The power of coaching: A meta-analytic investigation. Coaching: An International Journal of Theory, Research and Practice, 8(2), 73–95. DOI: 10.1080/17521882.2015.1071418. Cited for the finding that number of coaching sessions was a significant moderator of coaching effectiveness. The direction and size of that moderation are not stated in the abstract and are not characterised further in this report.

  26. The point at the end of Part 4 — that time spent on one person's coaching is not available for the rest of a manager's team — is an AERTHEIX inference, not a finding from the cited studies.

  27. Part 5
  28. Jones, Woods & Guillaume (2016), as above. The recommendation described in Part 5 appears in the authors' discussion of the finding that number of sessions did not moderate outcomes.

  29. Bozer, G., & Jones, R. J. (2018). Understanding the factors that determine workplace coaching effectiveness: A systematic literature review. European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 27(3), 342–361. DOI: 10.1080/1359432X.2018.1446946. Synthesis of 117 empirical studies; seven areas identified: self-efficacy, coaching motivation, goal orientation, trust, interpersonal attraction, feedback intervention and supervisory support.

  30. Hannah, S. T., & Avolio, B. J. (2010). Ready or not: How do we accelerate the developmental readiness of leaders? Journal of Organizational Behavior, 31(8), 1181–1187. Defines leader developmental readiness as motivation and ability to develop; ability to develop is described as promoted through self-awareness, self-complexity and meta-cognitive ability.

  31. International Coaching Federation (2025), 2025 ICF Global Coaching Study, as above. Quotation from the study's description of the coach practitioner role: "The coach's job is to provide support to enhance the skills, resources, and creativity that the client already has."

  32. The five working patterns are an AERTHEIX working framework drawn from practice and first published in The Transfer Deficit (Insight Series No.02). They are not a validated diagnostic classification. The third column of the table in Part 5 is an AERTHEIX reading of how each pattern relates to coaching's stated premise, not a research finding.

  33. Part 6
  34. Gallup (2026). Span of Control: What's the Optimal Team Size for Managers? Published 13 January 2026. Average direct reports per manager: 12.1 (2025), 10.9 (2024), 8.2 (2013). Gallup's methodology note describes web surveys of a random sample of 16,442 managers conducted from 2022 through 2024; we have not been able to confirm from the article which sample underlies the 2025 figure. The same article reports that highly engaged teams of 12 or more, supported by effective management, can thrive — reported in Part 6 as a caveat. United States data only.

  35. Hannah & Avolio (2010), as above, for self-awareness as a component of developmental readiness. The statement that self-report measures of self-awareness are circular is an AERTHEIX inference from that definition, not a finding from the cited study.

  36. The observation that no party in the coaching chain has a strong incentive to call a case unsuitable, and the one-hour-per-person illustration, are AERTHEIX inferences from practice.

  37. The VITALIS description in Part 6 makes no claim of effect or validation and is not for use in hiring or employment decisions. Whether the record can be kept light enough for a manager with a team of twelve is stated as an open question for founding deployments.

In this series

  1. No.01The Signal Collapse — when AI breaks both the talent pipeline and the way we identify who belongs in it
  2. No.02The Transfer Deficit — why corporate learning investment fails to become behaviour
  3. No.03The Wrong Question — same CV, same job description, four times the difference (forthcoming)
  4. No.04 The Readiness Gap — coaching works. More sessions don't reliably add more. The missing variable may be upstream

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